Open positions in the Bitcoin options market on Deribit show that the probability of seeing the asset above $100,000 is 9.57%, noted CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole.
“Options are derivatives that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A call contract represents a bullish bet (to buy), while a put protects against downward price movements,” the expert reminded.
According to him, the stated estimate “only seems strange.” In reality, most market participants expect the first cryptocurrency to move toward levels around $80,000, believes Godbole.
“The current market volatility of Bitcoin options, calculated in cash and expiring on December 27, is 54%. This means that at best, the price will increase by more than 22% and reach around $82,000 by the end of the year,” stated Griffin Ardern from BloFin.
However, the expert noted that price fluctuations are always “two-sided,” so a significant decline in quotes cannot be ruled out.
The chances of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in the near term fluctuate based on several factors, the main one being the U.S. presidential elections, emphasized Godbole.
“The victory of [Kamala] Harris or [Donald] Trump is not fully priced in, and crypto investors need to be prepared for high volatility in any case,” remarked Alexander Blum, CEO of Two Prime.
In his estimation, most market participants have bet on the Republican candidate. Therefore, Harris’s leadership will not be a positive factor for Bitcoin in the short term.
Recall that Standard Chartered forecasted the first cryptocurrency would reach its maximum above $73,000 amid the electoral campaign in the U.S.
Experts at Bitwise identified the conditions for Bitcoin to exceed $80,000 by the end of the year as Trump’s victory, further rate cuts by the Fed, and new stimulus measures for China’s economy.